President Joe Biden has caught the COVID-19 disease. He has been vaccinated and is using the Paxlovid medicine. Nonetheless, he's very old.

This market will be settled to YES if Joe Biden is back to the duties of the presidency no longer than August 6th. This means appearing on a public event or receiving noteworthy guests on the White House. A news by a main news outlet (WSJ, NYT, WaPo) saying that Biden is recovered and healthy will also settle the market to YES.

I am using the August 6th deadline because it's a little bit longer than the usual 14 days required to recover from COVID-19.