Basic
21
1.9k
2028
First debate
47%
Kamala is just Biden's VP
·
9mo
27%
Biden makes her the party nominee
·
9mo
18%
Biden resigns to make her president
·
9mo
8%
Kamala becomes president against Biden's will
·
9mo
  • Kamala is just Biden's VP: The market resolves to this one if Kamala leaves the succession line without running for president or becoming the president. Consider it the status quo.

  • Biden makes her the nominee: I'll hold this option to a high standard. Kamala winning a common primary process like Bush or Gore wouldn't count. Thus means and orchestrated effort by the old man to make her the presidential nominee by the party

  • Biden resigns to make her president: this one I'll also hold to a high standard. It wouldn't count if Biden is on the verge to be trialed guilty by the senate and he resigns like Nixon. I'll have to see Intent by his part.

  • Kamala becomes president against Biden's will: here I'm counting death, 25th amendment, impeachment, Kamala being elected by the popular vote without Biden's concentrated effort to make her the nominee

I won't bet on this market. This market may require significant judgement. I'll rely on the wording of the mainstream media and Wikipedia to help me adjudicate.

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This market only resolves to Biden makes her the nominee if he endorses Kamala this cycle.

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