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MANIFOLD
Will there be rain during the Monaco GP?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ110
Jun 13
36%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if there is rainfall on any part of the Circuit de Monaco during the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix main race on Sunday, June 7, 2026.

Specifically, this is defined as:

  • Any moisture or rain falling from the sky onto the track during the race (from the start of the formation lap until the checkered flag or official race termination).

  • Any driver fitting intermediate (green-banded) or full wet (blue-banded) tires during the race due to track conditions.

  • The FIA officially declaring the track wet or starting/suspending the session due to rain.

The market resolves to NO if the race runs from start to finish entirely in dry conditions with no rain falling on the circuit.

Sources for verification:

Note: If the Grand Prix is postponed to a later date in 2026, the market will remain open and resolve based on the rescheduled race. If the race is canceled completely and not run at all, this market will resolve to N/A.

Background

The 2026 Monaco Grand Prix takes place from June 5 to June 7, 2026. The event was shifted to early June as part of F1's calendar regionalization and sustainability efforts.

Rain at Monaco dramatically shifts race dynamics due to the circuit's tight, barrier-lined streets where there is virtually zero margin for error. Slippery conditions make contact with the barriers highly punishing, as seen during the last wet race in 2022. Current weather forecasts for the 2026 race weekend suggest very warm, stable, and mostly sunny conditions with a low probability of precipitation.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

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