Will Meta announce layoffs by 2023-04-30?
resolved Mar 16

Layoffs must be covered by a major news organization by close time, 2023-04-30 11:59 PM Pacific Time.

Original market:

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predicted YES

Layoffs announced. If no objections, I will close this market in favor of YES after 24 hours.


bought Ṁ100 of YES


> over the next couple of months, org leaders will announce restructuring plans focused on flattening our orgs, canceling lower priority projects, and reducing our hiring rates. With less hiring, I’ve made the difficult decision to further reduce the size of our recruiting team. We will let recruiting team members know tomorrow whether they’re impacted. We expect to announce restructurings and layoffs in our tech groups in late April, and then our business groups in late May. In a small number of cases, it may take through the end of the year to complete these changes. Our timelines for international teams will also look different, and local leaders will follow up with more details. Overall, we expect to reduce our team size by around 10,000 people and to close around 5,000 additional open roles that we haven’t yet hired.

predicted NO
predicted NO

Original market

Would mass firing count as a layoff? eg if they fired everyone with a poor performance review. What qualifies as a layoff? Severance packages?

@Quate Let's say that if at the news article describes it as a layoff, then it qualifies.

predicted NO

@MCMillennium What if news articles describe them as layoffs, but Meta does not "announce" them? The article posted above indicates there might be slow, rolling layoffs/firings that Meta does not publically announce at all.

@Quate If the company doesn't announce it, then I think it would fail the plain reading of the market title "Will Meta announce layoffs by 2023-04-30?"

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@MCMillennium I’m buying way more NO then. I’m guessing they’ll fire a bunch of people, quietly nod/decline to comment on news articles asking if these are layoffs, and move on. This might be tricky to resolve.

So new layoffs not previously announced?

@samb are there any layoffs announced in the last month?

@MCMillennium I haven't seen any

@samb Yes, new layoffs (not the ones from November 2022).