If San Francisco Constraints Reduction passes by 2023-12-05, it will exempt potentially historic homes
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resolved Dec 13
Resolved
YES

The Constraints Reduction housing legislation will go to the San Francisco Board of Supervisors (SFBOS) on Tuesday 2023-12-05. The legislation is file 230446. You can track the bill status in Legistar here.

San Francisco is required to pass this bill in order to remain compliant with state law. The California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) sent a warning letter on 2023-10-25 for San Francisco to pass this legislation.

Last week, Supervisor Rafael Mandelman added amendments to require a discretionary approval by the Planning Commission if new housing requires the demolition of potentially historic homes:

  1. Buildings built on/before 1923

  2. Buildings in historic/conservation districts

  3. Buildings deemed eligible for historic designation

In a letter sent on 2023-11-28 (link), HCD warned that these amendments may violate state law.

If the SFBOS does not pass the bill on first reading on 2023-12-05, this market will resolve N/A. If the SFBOS does pass on first reading, this market will resolve to YES if any of the amendments stay in the bill. If all of the amendments are removed from the bill, then this market will resolve NO.

See for more context:

https://sfstandard.com/2023/11/27/san-francisco-lawmakers-gambit-on-housing-reform-bills/

Related market on whether the bill passes first reading on 2023-12-05

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The bill passed and the latest version has the intersection of (1) and (3) as a condition:

The building proposed for demolition is not an Historic Building as defined in Section 102, and further provided that if the building proposed for demolition was built before 1923, the Planning Department has determined that it does not meet the criteria for designation as an Historic Building as defined in Section 102;

No hearing required unless (1) building is historic, which was not in the market, and (2) both (a) building is built before 1923 and (b) the Planning Department determines that the building qualifies as a historic building.
I'm inclined to resolve to no as no amendment stayed (wholly) in the law. However, I could also see it argued that some portion of the amendments did make it into the law. Thoughts?

predicted YES

@MCMillennium

this market will resolve to YES if any of the amendments stay in the bill. If all of the amendments are removed from the bill, then this market will resolve NO.

Well, neither "any of the amendments stay in the bill" nor "all of the amendments are removed from the bill" are wholly true :P

predicted YES

@MikeChenSF but dw do whatever you think is best I won't rate down :P

@MingweiSamuel I'll resolve yes. I'll have to think about how to treat these cases in future.

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