California HCD de-certifies San Francisco's Housing Element by 2024-01-15
8
170Ṁ473
resolved Jan 17
Resolved
NO

On October 25, the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) told the city of San Francisco to take actions or risk de-certification of their Housing Element of the General Plan. De-certification would leave San Francisco open to financial penalties and lawsuits from the state Attorney General, allow builder's remedy projects, and would make the city ineligible for state housing and transportation funds.

According to the San Francisco Chronicle, HCD will send a warning letter next week (commencing November 27, 2023), giving San Francisco 30 days to come into compliance.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/s-f-housing-deadline-california-18504255.php

This market resolves YES if HCD de-certifies San Francisco's housing element by Monday, January 15 (Pacific time).

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With constraints reduction ordinance passing yesterday (albeit with some amendments HCD doesn't like) I think this is pretty unlikely at this point

@MCMillennium Local politics markets seems like an under-utilized manifold application, thanks for making this market.

FYI, you can make a multiple choice market with the "any number of answers" setting on to effectively combine a bunch of markets about the same event, but with different dates.

predictedNO

@BoltonBailey I made a market like this with multiple dates. Feel free to add more:

predictedNO

@BoltonBailey Selfishly I think the system incentivizes multiple Yes/No questions with staggered market end dates than as one multiple-choice market with an end date far in the future. Some users seek out "closing soon" markets and get a surge of betting that I wouldn't see in a multiple-choice market. Setting a multiple-choice market does not allow me to edit new dates/deadlines as news develops. I risk being too fine grained in my time intervals or too coarse. If I had made this market in September, I would not have learned anything about the state deadlines.

It seems very possible, just less likely than 73%

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