Resolves YES if FRED reports a US city average price <= $2.00 per dozen eggs for December 2023: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111
Between 2017 and 2022 the price was between $2.10 and $1.20 and this market would have resolved YES most of the time.
The question can be seen as a proxy for the persistence (or not) of food inflation in 2023.
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
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Interesting today I learned about FRED.
I have always just gone to the source, the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
If you like this market you might enjoy this one that will close the date that the March 2023 CPI data is published, that is, if you like shorter term prediction markets with 1 degree of convolution.
apparently I need to use the referral link to get quest credit? https://manifold.markets/ShitakiIntaki/will-a-pound-lb-of-flour-be-more-ex?r=U2hpdGFraUludGFraQ
No because:
1. Feed costs are too high, and I don't think they'll fall enough by then.
2. Labor costs are still high all along the supply chain.
3. HPAI is endemic in N America now and can be expected to cause another 20-60M domestic poultry to be lost this year. 58M poultry were lost last year. My best guess would be another 40-60M this year. The number that are lost to bird flu will be determined by a combination of chance and the effectiveness of big commercial farms' biosecurity practices; one can only hope that big commercial operations are getting better about this.
@belikewater I've changed my position because prices are falling drastically, and bird flu has barely affected egg and poultry producers so far this year. Costs are still high, but somehow producers are doing this. I think the price could be under $2 roughly around July.