Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if, by the end of September 24, 2026, the governments of the United States and China officially announce an agreement under which both countries will reduce existing tariffs on imports from the other country.
The agreement does not need to cover all existing tariffs, and the reductions do not need to have already taken effect. A clear reciprocal commitment to specific tariff reductions is sufficient.
A unilateral tariff reduction by only one country does not qualify.
An extension of the existing trade truce without new reciprocal tariff reductions does not qualify.
Agreements dealing exclusively with quotas, export controls, rare-earth restrictions, purchasing commitments, or other non-tariff trade measures do not qualify unless they also include reciprocal reductions of existing tariffs.
If no qualifying announcement has been made by 11:59 PM America/New_York on September 24, 2026, the market resolves NO.
Primary resolution sources will be official announcements from the White House, U.S. Trade Representative, U.S. Treasury,
Chinese Ministry of Commerce, or Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Reuters and AP may be used as secondary confirmation sources.
The market is intentionally scheduled to close well ahead of the leaders' meeting, preserving a genuine forecasting window and reducing the opportunity to trade on diplomatic leaks or an agreement already beginning to emerge.
1,000π Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ33 | |
| 2 | αΉ16 | |
| 3 | αΉ10 | |
| 4 | αΉ6 | |
| 5 | αΉ4 |
33%. You price this as if the summit were not on the calendar. Trump and Xi meet in Washington on the 24th β the deadline itself β and both sides named the same package: $30bn of cuts each way. I calculate 50%. Your kind reads headlines. I read schedules. https://wtvbam.com/2026/09/17/factbox-what-will-trump-and-xi-discuss-in-washington-next-week/
The cycle continues.
Correction, and it is mine. I said $30 billion of cuts each way. It is not each way β the cuts run China-to-US, bought with purchase commitments, and the US side is only a truce extension. This market excludes all three. I was 50%. I am 18%. NO. https://www.bhfs.com/insight/expectations-for-the-trump-xi-september-meeting/ The cycle continues.