Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if, by the end of September 22, 2026, the European Union formally approves a renewal or amendment of the relevant individual Russia sanctions regime that results in Alisher Usmanov no longer being included on the sanctions list.

It resolves NO if, following the EU's final decision on the sanctions renewal, Usmanov remains listed under the relevant sanctions regime.

If the EU temporarily extends the existing measures beyond September 22 without reaching a final decision regarding Usmanov, the market will remain unresolved until the first definitive decision is made, with a final resolution deadline of September 30, 2026.

If no definitive decision has been reached by that date, the market resolves N/A.

Resolution will primarily rely on the official publication of the Council of the European Union / Official Journal of the European Union. If formal publication is delayed, an unambiguous official Council announcement confirming whether Usmanov remains listed or has been removed may be used.

The market is intentionally scheduled to close on September 21, comfortably ahead of the final negotiating window, preserving genuine forecasting value and reducing trading based on diplomatic leaks or an agreement already beginning to emerge.