Background
Oregon is the only U.S. state without some form of impeachment powers in its state constitution. In 2023, both the State Senate and State House unanimously voted to refer House Joint Resolution 16 to voters. HJR16 will allow legislators to impeach the State Executive Branch.
See also: Oregon 2024 Election Dashboard
Market Resolution
The market will resolve to one answer based on
If the ballot measure passes or fails
The margin by which it passes or fails
Margin will be determined by the percentage of voters that were for or against the measure.
(Pass or Fail Voters / Total Votes) = Margin
The market will resolve N/A if:
The ballot measure is withdrawn
The market will resolve based on certified results from the Oregon Secretary of State. Market closes on 5 Nov 2024; market resolution may be delayed until data is released. Oregon Law requires that any ballot measure receive an affirmative majority so in case of a 50/50 tie, the measure will have failed. [0]
Related Markets
Disclaimer
I do not bet on markets I create in order to avoid motivated reasoning. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.
1,000
3.00@traders - currently considering resolving this market N/A and converting to linked multiple-choice. Market is temporarily closed / delisted.
@traders - Apologies, there was an error when creating markets. Current market as been resolved N/A and new market has been created.
This would probably work better as a "linked" multiple choice market - that means that only one answer will be chosen and the answers will automatically balance themselves to add up to 100%. When you're creating a market, you can do this by selecting "One" for "How many answers will be chosen?":
I'd personally recommend that you resolve this market as N/A and then recreate that way. Recreating a market is easy since you can "Duplicate" the market - go to the three dots in the top right of the market screen and it will be one of the buttons at the bottom - and then you can just modify the settings as you like.
Sorry if I'm telling you anything you already know or if you intentionally set up the market like this - it will definitely still work this way.
@Gabrielle - Nah, don't be sorry. This market is a bit of an experiment. I have another similar market that covers a different ballot measure that uses linked answers.
Since they both will resolve to one answer, I'm playing around with how the predictions are visually represented. I got the idea from a market predicting when/if Biden retakes the polling lead. At times, the variables have almost shown a sideways bar graph with binomial distribution centered around two answers. It was, I thought, a better representation of what the market actually thought than the time-series graph at the top. The dependent variables would probably do the same, but I'm not sure the effect would be as striking.
Thoughts?
@LukasDay Hmm, I'm a bit confused. That Biden retaking the polling lead market that you linked is a dependent multiple choice market. Both types should have the same visual display, but the independent market's choices won't automatically add up to 100%, while in the dependent market the choices will automatically add up to 100%.
The current options in this market add up to 195%, so they should probably all be bet down to half of their current value. I'm not sure there's really any value to an independent market for something like this, except for maybe that it's easier to move around just one or two options.
Again though, up to you!
@Gabrielle - yeah, I just looked at it too and saw I was mistaken. Resolving market N/A and duplicating. Apologies for inconvenience