Who will be elected Oregon State Representative, 3rd District?
Who will be elected Oregon State Representative, 3rd District?
5
240Ṁ235
Nov 6
49%
Dwayne Yunker (Republican) [Incumbent]
30%
Mark J Seligman (Democrat)
30%
Dustin Watkins (Democrat)
7%
Write-In

This market pertains to the qualified candidates for Oregon State Representative, 3rd District, as officially listed by the Oregon Secretary of State [0]. Major Party Candidates have until 12 March and Minor Party / Individual Electors have until 27 August to file for office; options may be subject to change. Coverage extends across both the Primary Election (21 May) and the General Election (5 Nov), offering a comprehensive view of the electoral process.

[0] Oregon 2024 Candidate Filings

Market Resolution

Options will resolve NO if candidates are eliminated in the Primaries, with the remaining options resolving post-General Election upon complete vote tally. In case of an automatic recount (triggered if the vote difference is under 0.002% as per Oregon Law [1]), the market will follow the recount results. If certified results face a later recount, a new subsequent market will be established.

[1] ORS 258.280

Disclaimer

I do not bet in markets I create to avoid motivated reasoning. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.

2024 Democratic Primaries
US State Government
Oregon
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy