Will a major terrorist attack happen before December 20th? | Manifold

Will a major terrorist attack happen before December 20th?

3

100Ṁ41

Dec 19

33%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

An attack will only count as major, if it appears on this list.

Resolution criteria

An attack will only count as "major" if it appears on Wikipedia's list of major terrorist incidents, which includes terrorist incidents from around the world. Resolution will be determined by checking the Wikipedia list of terrorist incidents for any new entries added between now and December 20th, 2025. The market resolves YES if such an incident is documented; otherwise it resolves NO.

Background

Recent major incidents include the December 15, 2025 attack on a Hanukkah event in Sydney, Australia that killed 12, an Islamic State attack in Palmyra, Syria that killed three Americans, and a disrupted plot in Bavaria, Germany targeting a Christmas market. While these represent significant terrorist activity, only incidents meeting the 100+ fatality threshold would qualify as "major" under this market's criteria.

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