Will Trump be found guilty of what happened at the Capitol?
Mini
6
192
2025
23%
chance

Analyzing legal events, the odds of Trump being found guilty for his role in the assault on the Capitol will depend on ongoing investigations and prosecutions. Analysis of (Ntontis et al., 2023) suggest that Trump's legal liability could be based on his rhetoric and actions leading up to the event.

Statistics from previous impeachments can also provide historical perspective. However, policy and legal interpretation can influence the results. Continued analysis of court proceedings and evidence presented will be needed to make a more accurate prediction; however, for the purposes of this work I would bet no of the power he still has in the high echelons of the judiciary, because of the allies and sponsors he has, because of the political situation (next year's elections), because of his age, and what is most important , it is because of the amount of approval and support it has among the citizens of the United States.

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