How far ahead of the registry model will the best entry on ReadoutBench Round 1 be?

Question

Resolves on the entry with the lowest Brier score on p_met in the ranked pass (results public by 30 June 2027), compared with the registry model (B1), as published on readoutbench.com. Any entry counts: any model, team or method. Entries closed on 15 November 2026

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, No entry beats the registry model, followed by Ahead by less than 0.01 Brier and Ahead by 0.01–0.02 are most likely. See the market for live updates (0 traders, as of Nov 2, 2026).

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