Effective Altruism Global London 2024 happened at the end of May / start of June. It is free for all participants, however, they highly encourage donations as part of the entrance process, but they do not claim Gift Aid on this.
I am interested in knowing what value was left on the table, to help judge if it is worth the EAG team putting effort into this for future events.
For this question, assume the following:
Only estimating the value of the Gift Aid claimed by EAG, and ignoring the potential value higher earners can get by declaring the donation on a tax return.
Assume for simplicity that people's donation amounts were not affected by whether the donation was tax deductible or not.
This answer will be resolved if the EAG team make a public estimate of the value they could have gotten.
If the EAG team does not make a public estimate, then I am not sure of the best way of resolving this. I assume it is up to my discretion based on the most convincing estimates. This is the first question I am posting on a prediction market so any help/advice will be appreciated.
1,000
3.00Stats from SwapCard (app used to facilitate networking):
1522 people total
675 put 'United Kingdom' for country
345 of those put 'Working (0 to 5 years), working (5 to 15) or working (15+)' as one of their checkboxes for 'Career Stage'
If all 345 of these people paid the recommended £400 and they were all eligible for GiftAid, then EAG could get £100 * 345 = £34,500.
This is crude estimate but seems like good starting point.
Welcome to Manifold and to posting questions!
On Manifold specifically, you can set a Multiple Choice question to indicate that only one answer will be selected. This lets the platform combine the liquidity for the options in a way that automatically makes them add up to 100%. For a market like this one that covers disjoint choices, that would probably be more appropriate in the future!
(The way you did create it will work fine; it will just require traders to manually arbitrage between the options to keep them in line with sum=100%.)
For early discussion on whether donations are tax deductible see https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/G3M52pSH8J7JLdegn/can-donations-to-eag-be-tax-deductible