Will the Tontine surviving player count be 420 (1/17) or less as of 2023-6-21?
22
closes Jun 21
91%
chance

https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-3-25, 493 players remain.

The market resolves YES if the living count is 420 (1/17 of the original population - nice) or less as of 12:05 AM EST on 2023-6-21, and NO if the living count is 421 or more (not nice) at that time. It resolves early to YES if the living population should fall to or below 420 before that time, and to N/A if the game is canceled for any reason.

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Fedor avatar
Fedorbought Ṁ95 of NO

You bought it up from 47% to 78%, and then an hour later a day drops where 4 people died. That's unlucky, but I'll take that trade.

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randlesis predicting YES at 60%

@Fedor The way I read the claim, it pays yes if the number is 420 or lower. So the drop of 4 players caused the price to go up. The trades pushing the price up were after the player count was displayed not before it.

Fedor avatar
Fedorbought Ṁ65 of YES

@ChristopherRandles Indeed, I'm just waaay too sleepy today. Thanks!

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