Will Syzygy publish another installment of "games of no chance" by July 1, 2024?
Jul 3


Resolves YES if >=50 new substantive replies after https://www.glowfic.com/replies/2093938#reply-2093938 (last post as of market creation). Might still resolve YES if less than that - see below.

I will post a large NO limit as a combination of prediction, decaying bounty, and emotional hedging.

"Substantive" will be a good-faith assessment; blank beat replies, one-word replies, and fragments will not generally count; gigantic complex replies will count double. As has been hashed out in the comments, tags consisting only of a single medium-sized sentence will count for half a reply; we may infer that a reasonable lower bound to a full tag is two full meaningful sentences.

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I count 6 tags' worth of post from April 2nd.

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Halfway there.

Looks like another 2.5ish tags' worth of more post! 13.5, by my judgement.

Just to be sure - the 14ish tags so far do not yet count as a substantive update. We've had, like, half a conversation with a main character reporting back to a deity.

@Lorxus I've been counting these 14 as ~individually substantive and counting towards the >=50 formal criterion, but not so big as to count multiply; does that match your assessment?

(& I think we'all Yes holders assume that another 2.5 reply runs are likely to follow.)

@mxxun Nearly but not quite - a couple of the new tags have been pretty thin. I think I'd judge there to have been ~10-12 substantive tags' worth of new writing - does that sound fair?

@Lorxus I'd argue 12-14 on the grounds that they average to a reasonably-sized reply. That's annoying to formalize though. Maybe "single medium-sized-sentence replies count as a half"; easy to count and it'd give 12.

@mxxun The main tags I'm thinking of don't have even a full sentence in them, or consist entirely of... a single inference or meaningful look, I guess?

@mxxun If we go by that standard, we've got 0 super-duper meaty doubleish tags, 9 full-on substantive tags, 4 that are like half a tag's worth, tops, and 1 that's just plain a fragment. So I'd count 11?