This market resolves YES if at least 90% of people in any of the 3 SERI MATS cohorts present at the 2023-7-5 grant workshops successfully submit their grant applications to LTFF and Lightcone before their deadline. It resolves NO otherwise.
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๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน248 | |
| 2 | แน84 | |
| 3 | แน43 | |
| 4 | แน38 | |
| 5 | แน15 |
I primarily believe that >=90% is WAY too high a threshold, especially given Sydney/John's seeming agreement that people who explicitly choose not to apply do still count, rather than not count at all either way, given the adverse incentives that lie there. In the first cohort there were 14 (including me) which implies at least all but one would be required, ceiling(12.6) being 13.
My hand-on-heart best guess as to the likely final proportion is quartiles at >85%/>75%/>60%, and if we measured it the other way (not counting explicit refusals to apply either way) at something like >92%/>87%/>77%.