Will Lorxus, the author of this market, survive SERI MATS 2024 in Tontine?
Basic
5
αΉ€2.0k
Aug 26
90%
chance

https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-6-25, 250 players remain.

The market resolves YES if Lorxus, a currently surviving player in the Tontine, continues to survive until end of the SERI MATS 2024 Summer Run in Berkeley and returns home safely to Fox City on the East Coast of the US, and NO if they lose the game at any point before then, due to forgetting, user error, and/or failure of any safeguards. It resolves N/A if the game is canceled for any reason, and YES if Lorxus intentionally technically loses Tontine as part of a negotiated agreement in which they receive their accepted allotment of the final split. If Lorxus stays in Berkeley temporarily past the end of SERI MATS, the market will only resolve when Lorxus finally returns home. If Lorxus for some reason has to stay in Berkeley indefinitely, the market will resolve NO at the end of the year.

I reserve the right to extend the closing time as necessary and to make good-faith modifications to resolve criteria and good-faith judgement calls about edge cases.

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Kudos for the comprehensive market description.

Ad gif. Group of men stand behind a seated man and slowly clap their hands stoically; the seated man raises his glass of whiskey at us.

There are a lot of reasonably likely (>1%) complicated edge cases here that I want to get out ahead of! My plane could crash, for a not-quite-example. I'm not just being punctilious here, promise.