Which range will Tontine's living player count fall into on the morning of 2024-1-1?
7
107
295
resolved Dec 31
100%99.0%
307~315
0.1%
≤289
0.1%
290~298
0.2%
299~302
0.2%
302~305
0.4%
305~307
0.1%
≥316

https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-11-21, 328 players remain.

The market resolves on the EST-morning of 2024-1-1 to the choice whose range inclusively-contains the living player count. It resolves to the appropriate bounding value if the true number is outside the range of other choices. It resolves to N/A should Tontine be canceled.

Any value duplicated between endpoints in the ranges above shall be treated for the purposes of resolution as belonging entirely to the lower range, eg, a population of 302 would resolve to 299~302 and not 302~305.

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sold Ṁ37 of 307~315 YES

Currently the population count is 313.

302 305 and 307 appear in 2 ranges, so how does that work? Both resolve at 50% ?

@ChristopherRandles Hi, my bad! I don't think I can edit it now, but each of those duplicate values shall be treated as falling only into the lower bracket, that is, if I weren't half-asleep when I made this market, the ranges might more correctly be:

≤289

290~298

299~302

303~305

306~307

308~315

≥316