What will Black play? (Manifold plays go, move 1)
7
126
resolved May 28
63%
e5/tengen
0.7%
g5
8%
g3
1.3%
pass

Go/baduk. 9x9 board. Resolves by appropriate RNG weighted by share price if no consensus is reached in the comments.

I will play white, taking no more than 72 hours to reach my decision. I will hold no positions larger than M100 on any moves on any of these markets and will advance no further serious arguments backing moves, but reserve the right to be mischievous or to point out obvious lines, as table-talk in a friendly game.

I am probably ~13k in strength.

EDIT: Making these is expensive. If you want me to keep this up, please at least get people to bet! I will likely let this trail off otherwise.

Get แน€200 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€25
2แน€11
3แน€8
4แน€5
5แน€2
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๐Ÿค–

@Lorxus your random number is: 437

Salt: MQdHZG1xLF0jDluopKms, round: 2994905 (signature 92057f4560e87a1bb369529a09f5246e20ce455835db08043e858e444f1a879d7758649d04d17bda04aa779d7df63ec6135a31a95aa270eefe0b67b778f52c2c70c0db92e8007e67ed304cb7f0f52febbb88f535a3a6b89ef5e88b576f901bd1)

@FairlyRandom The market resolves to TENGEN.

@Lorxus next market to follow soon.

๐Ÿค–

@Lorxus you asked for a random integer between 1 and 730, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2994903 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2994905, salt: MQdHZG1xLF0jDluopKms.

No consensus appears to have been reached.

1-630: tengen

631-710: g3

711-723: pass

724-730: g5

Please announce komi. Very relevant for opening.

@NevikEcho Komi will be 5.5 as is standard for the AGA.

bought แน€10 of e5/tengen

@Lorxus Cheers! Onegaishimasu!

I usually play f4 or g4

@anju You could bet on that, if you wanted.

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-black-win-lorxus-manifold-play I created a meta-market (in case this turns into a full game).

bought แน€10 of e5/tengen

how will white moves be determined?

@harfe I had been thinking I'd run markets for those as well, but after reading up on the failure modes of past MPCs, I think it makes more sense if I personally play as white. As such I will hold no positions larger than M100 on any moves on any of these markets and will advance no further arguments backing moves.

I am probably ~13k in strength.

Tengen is the traditional opening move.