In Tontine, will another species go extinct by end of 1Q 2024?
3
34
70
resolved Jan 28
Resolved
YES

https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-11-17, 329 players remain.

Each living player has an avatar, chosen freely at the start of the game. They had a choice among 7 colors and 10 sprites, resulting in 70 possible choices of avatar. Of these 70 species, 67 remain: all but yellow lizard-mage, yellow kobold, and orange plague-doctor. In particular, on the day that this market was created, Smoky, the last orange plague-doctor, died.

Below: the state of play as of day 689, 2023-11-17. Names in white are the endlings of their species.

The market resolves to NO by default at the end of the first quarter of 2024, defined to be 2024-03-31. It resolves early to YES when the next species goes extinct, whether or not this is the result of one of the current endlings dying. It resolves to N/A if Tontine is canceled.

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The pink kobold is no more. Kwanza died this morning at midnight.