Will clued-in people be talking about ASI-Arch as a significant inflection point in July 2026?
9
1kṀ10362026
25%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.18074
Resolves based on whether organic and serious discussion to this effect can be shown happening in July 2026, from people I can be persuaded are clued in.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get ASI before 2036?
69% chance
Will we get ASI before 2029?
21% chance
Will we get ASI before 2027?
7% chance
Will we get ASI before 2034?
47% chance
Will we get ASI before 2031?
31% chance
Will we get ASI before 2028?
14% chance
Will we get ASI before 2033?
44% chance
Will we get ASI before 2032?
40% chance
Will we get ASI before 2035?
56% chance
Will we get ASI before 2030?
23% chance