What is Claude Opus 4's performance on METR's task length evaluation?
15
200Ṁ1139Jul 31
7%
Less than 1 hour
9%
1h to 1.5h
28%
1.5h to 2h
43%
2h to 3h
14%
At least 3h
METR's evaluation measures AI performance by the duration of tasks that models can complete with a 50% success rate. This market predicts Claude Opus 4's time horizon, as reported by METR.
If no score is provided by the end of July 2025, this market resolves as N/A. If there are multiple scores provided by METR, I'll use my best judgment. I won't trade in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@JoshYou Huh. I had thought that METR's resuls already allowed for best-of-N, which would be equivalent/redudant with parallel processing, but apparently I was wrong. I redact my earlier comment and try to do an apples-to-apples comparison.
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