How many steps are needed to distinguish a human-generated walk from a random walk (>90% confidence)?
9
895Ṁ8167
resolved Oct 20
100%89%
Even 300 won't suffice
0.3%
At most 50
0.5%
51-75
0.3%
76-100
0.6%
101-150
0.5%
151-200
9%
201-300

For context, see the following market, henceforth called the Main Market:

https://manifold.markets/Loppukilpailija/which-of-these-random-walks-is-huma

When looking at the market after its resolution, what will I think is the amount of steps Manifolders needed to get the correct answer right with >90% probability?

Details

Note that this is not quite the same when the Main Market first hits 10% or 90%, in that short spikes, market manipulations etc. do not count for the resolution.

If the Main Market visits >90% but later marketers become uncertain and the probability comes down, this will not count for "getting the correct answer right with >90% probability".

As I'm not particularly interested in precisely specifying what counts for market manipulation and don't want to encourage edge case attacks, I will leave the description in its above vague form. This market will resolve according to my subjective judgment.

I won't trade on this market (nor the Main Market) and will not attempt to manipulate it unfairly. I comply with reasonable requests to slow down the pace of new information on the Main Market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ279
2Ṁ148
3Ṁ29
4Ṁ27
5Ṁ26
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy