How many steps are needed to distinguish a human-generated walk from a random walk (>90% confidence)?

Basic

Ṁ8167

resolved Oct 20

ALL

100%89%

Even 300 won't suffice

0.3%

At most 50

0.5%

51-75

0.3%

76-100

0.6%

101-150

0.5%

151-200

201-300

For context, see the following market, henceforth called the Main Market:

https://manifold.markets/Loppukilpailija/which-of-these-random-walks-is-huma

When looking at the market after its resolution, what will I think is the amount of steps Manifolders needed to get the correct answer right with >90% probability?

Details

Note that this is not quite the same when the Main Market first hits 10% or 90%, in that short spikes, market manipulations etc. do not count for the resolution.

If the Main Market visits >90% but later marketers become uncertain and the probability comes down, this will not count for "getting the correct answer right with >90% probability".

As I'm not particularly interested in precisely specifying what counts for market manipulation and don't want to encourage edge case attacks, I will leave the description in its above vague form. This market will resolve according to my subjective judgment.

I won't trade on this market (nor the Main Market) and will not attempt to manipulate it unfairly. I comply with reasonable requests to slow down the pace of new information on the Main Market.

#Fun

#puzzles

Get

1,000

and

1.00

9 Comments

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For clarity, occasional spikes in the Main Market due to single traders betting towards 50% will not affect this resolution. Hence if the market is <10% and some trader pushes it over 10%, but other people take it back down soon thereafter, I judge this as meaning that the market is over 90% confident.

The only think keeping it below 10% is 1 or two traders, so it could be seen the other way too.

@capybara Is 100-150 now impossible, or in retrospect it might be seen to be true?

@capybara I am broke soon

@capybara Assuming that the market is right and there will be no large uncertainty later on, the answer is 100-150

@Loppukilpailija The market is now staying above 20% for quite some time, it is not 100-150.

@Irigi Yes, definitely not 100-150. (I don't really see a plausible way it can be 151-200 either, but, uh, I assume that you traders know what you are doing.)

How this will resolve it the market never shows the correct answer with > 90% ?

For example, now he martet is about 9%, if it will go only lower, but the correct answer is YES?

@bessarabov In that case the market resolves "Even 300 won't suffice"

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