For context, see the following market, henceforth called the Main Market:
https://manifold.markets/Loppukilpailija/which-of-these-random-walks-is-huma
When looking at the market after its resolution, what will I think is the amount of steps Manifolders needed to get the correct answer right with >90% probability?
Details
Note that this is not quite the same when the Main Market first hits 10% or 90%, in that short spikes, market manipulations etc. do not count for the resolution.
If the Main Market visits >90% but later marketers become uncertain and the probability comes down, this will not count for "getting the correct answer right with >90% probability".
As I'm not particularly interested in precisely specifying what counts for market manipulation and don't want to encourage edge case attacks, I will leave the description in its above vague form. This market will resolve according to my subjective judgment.
I won't trade on this market (nor the Main Market) and will not attempt to manipulate it unfairly. I comply with reasonable requests to slow down the pace of new information on the Main Market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ279 | |
| 2 | Ṁ148 | |
| 3 | Ṁ29 | |
| 4 | Ṁ27 | |
| 5 | Ṁ26 |
For clarity, occasional spikes in the Main Market due to single traders betting towards 50% will not affect this resolution. Hence if the market is <10% and some trader pushes it over 10%, but other people take it back down soon thereafter, I judge this as meaning that the market is over 90% confident.
@capybara Assuming that the market is right and there will be no large uncertainty later on, the answer is 100-150
@Irigi Yes, definitely not 100-150. (I don't really see a plausible way it can be 151-200 either, but, uh, I assume that you traders know what you are doing.)
How this will resolve it the market never shows the correct answer with > 90% ?
For example, now he martet is about 9%, if it will go only lower, but the correct answer is YES?