How many bits are needed to distinguish a human-generated string from a random one (>90% confidence)?

Basic

Ṁ2427

resolved Aug 26

ALL

100%98.3%

46-70

0.2%

<= 25 bits

0.4%

26-45

0.2%

71-100

0.1%

101-140

0.1%

141-180

0.1%

181-225

0.1%

226-275

0.1%

276-350

0.2%

351-500

0.2%

Even 500 bits won't suffice - the market is between 10% and 90% at resolve

For context, see the following market, henceforth called the Main Market: https://manifold.markets/Loppukilpailija/which-random-bit-string-is-humangen

When looking at the market after its resolution, what will I think is the amount of bits Manifolders needed to get the correct answer right with >90% probability?

Details: Note that this is not quite the same when the Main Market first hits 10% or 90%, in that short spikes, market manipulations etc. do not count for the resolution.

If the Main Market visits >90% but later marketers become uncertain and the probability comes down, this will not count for "getting the correct answer right with >90% probability".

As I'm not particularly interested in precisely specifying what counts for market manipulation and don't want to encourage edge case attacks, I will leave the description in its above vague form. I might resolve probabilistically in case it's really on a boundary, but again, this market will resolve based on my sole judgement.

I won't trade on this market (nor the Main Market) and will not attempt to manipulate it in any way.

Which "random" bit string is human-generated?

42% chance. Short description: given two binary strings, one "truly random" and one generated by myself, decide which one has been generated by me. Resolves YES if A is the string generated by me and NO if it is B. More bits will be revealed as time goes on. Currently revealed: 10 bits. A: 0000100110 B: 0111011010 -------- Detailed descriptions: I have generated two bit strings. One of the strings was created by me by pressing the buttons "0" and "1" on my keyboard. I produced a bit string of length 500. This took me roughly 115 seconds. Another string was generated by running the following python code: import random for i in range(500): print(random.randrange(2), end="") print() I've labeled these strings A and B by determining that the python-produced bit string is A iff random.org gives me the result 1 with settings min=1, max=2. I will successively reveal more bits as time progresses, at my own discretion, in the next few days. I'll mainly be optimizing fun with the pacing of new information. The market likely won't be up for more than a week. The market will resolve at latest when all of the 500 bits have been revealed and people have made their final bets. I reserve the right to resolve the market earlier if it seems wise, e.g. if the market has more or less made up its mind. I won't aim for adversarial resolutions or anything like that. I won't bet on this market. I may answer questions about the data generation process and myself in the comments. I may also answer to requests to reveal more bits.

#Fun

#Game theory

Get

1,000

and

1.00

4 Comments

Sort by:

Reflecting on this market: I had too many options. It's not necessary that you have very specific options, and probably often it's not very good - it's easier to hold the distribution in your head and trade when there are just 4-6 options instead of 11. And it's not like it brings additional value. I think this is part of the reason why this market didn't receive that much attention earlier on.

From now on I'll think whether I really need a dozen options when creating multiple choice.

No doubt the answer 46-70 is the correct one.

what happens if the market decides 99% on the wrong answer? You keep revealing bits? Wouldn't it be obvious then that the answer that the market has decided on is incorrect?

@zzlk Good point. Hence what I'll be doing is that if the market is 99% sure, I'll just reveal all of the bits quickly, and then soon resolve the market

Related questions

Related questions