42% chance. Short description: given two binary strings, one "truly random" and one generated by myself, decide which one has been generated by me. Resolves YES if A is the string generated by me and NO if it is B. More bits will be revealed as time goes on. Currently revealed: 10 bits. A: 0000100110 B: 0111011010 -------- Detailed descriptions: I have generated two bit strings. One of the strings was created by me by pressing the buttons "0" and "1" on my keyboard. I produced a bit string of length 500. This took me roughly 115 seconds. Another string was generated by running the following python code: import random for i in range(500): print(random.randrange(2), end="") print() I've labeled these strings A and B by determining that the python-produced bit string is A iff random.org gives me the result 1 with settings min=1, max=2. I will successively reveal more bits as time progresses, at my own discretion, in the next few days. I'll mainly be optimizing fun with the pacing of new information. The market likely won't be up for more than a week. The market will resolve at latest when all of the 500 bits have been revealed and people have made their final bets. I reserve the right to resolve the market earlier if it seems wise, e.g. if the market has more or less made up its mind. I won't aim for adversarial resolutions or anything like that. I won't bet on this market. I may answer questions about the data generation process and myself in the comments. I may also answer to requests to reveal more bits.