Which "Existential Threat" conjured by a US President was the biggest Paper Tiger of this Quarter Century?
4
2030
The "Mushroom Cloud" (Bush's WMDs): Sold as a nuclear apocalypse; reality was empty warehouses. Cost: $2T and regional destabilization.
The "Invasion Force" (Trump 1.0's Caravan): Sold as a military conquest of the border; reality was unarmed asylum seekers walking at 3mph.
The "Red Line" (Obama's Norms): Sold as the iron law of the "International Community"; reality was Assad/Putin ignoring it with zero consequence.
The "Juggernaut" (Biden's Russian Army): Sold as a peer-competitor that would take Kyiv in 72hrs; reality was logistically broken and reliant on 1980s maps.
The "Cabal" (Trump 2.0's Deep State): Sold as a hyper-competent shadow government; reality is likely just inertia, red tape, and inefficiency.
The "Ticking Clock" (The Climate Deadline): Sold as an immediate "Point of No Return" (e.g., ice-free Arctic by 2014); reality is a slow-moving crisis while policymakers continue buying coastal mansions.
The "Eclipse" (Bipartisan China): Sold as the inevitable economic usurper; reality is a collapsing demographic pyramid and 20% youth unemployment.
See results (I'm just here to arbitrage the collapse)
Every US President this century has rallied the nation against a monster that turned out to be... less than advertised. This poll weighs the delta between the Apocalyptic Rhetoric used to sell the threat and the Hollow Reality that followed.
Presidents this century:
Clinton (42) Jan 1, 2001 – Jan 20, 2001
Bush Jr. (43) Jan 20, 2001 – Jan 20, 2009
Obama (44) Jan 20, 2009 – Jan 20, 2017
Trump (45) Jan 20, 2017 – Jan 20, 2021
Biden (46) Jan 20, 2021 – Jan 20, 2025
Trump (47) Jan 20, 2025 – Present
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000