Would Biden win the US Presidency in 2024 if his opponent is DeSantis?
54%
chance

Sort by:
MattP avatar
Matt P What is the resolution criteria for this market?
LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
Oliviais predicting NO at 56% @MattP If both are nominated, resolves to result of election. If neither are nominated, resolves to N/A. The case I'm not sure of is if one is nominated without the other. I could reasonably see a world where that should resolve as if the nominated one won, but I could also see the case for resolving to MKT or N/A. Do you have any input there?
MattP avatar
Matt P @LivInTheLookingGlass the most natural interpretation to me would be that it is N/A unless the election is Biden vs DeSantis. That is, "conditional on his opponent being DeSantis, will Biden win the 2024 election?"