Would Biden win the US Presidency in 2024 if his opponent is DeSantis? | Manifold Markets

closes Nov 3

Would Biden win the US Presidency in 2024 if his opponent is DeSantis?

54%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Sort by:

Matt P What is the resolution criteria for this market?

Oliviais predicting NO at 56% @MattP If both are nominated, resolves to result of election. If neither are nominated, resolves to N/A. The case I'm not sure of is if one is nominated without the other. I could reasonably see a world where that should resolve as if the nominated one won, but I could also see the case for resolving to MKT or N/A. Do you have any input there?

Matt P @LivInTheLookingGlass the most natural interpretation to me would be that it is N/A unless the election is Biden vs DeSantis. That is, "conditional on his opponent being DeSantis, will Biden win the 2024 election?"

wustep bought Ṁ10 YES from 53% to 54%

wustep bought Ṁ10 YES from 51% to 53%

Remi vise la mire bought Ṁ10 NO at 51%

Adrian filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ62 YES at 51%

Lisa Marsh bought Ṁ10 YES from 48% to 50%

Nico D bought Ṁ20 NO from 52% to 48%

Unconditional Probability bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 52%

Joshua bought Ṁ10 YES from 48% to 50%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 NO at 48% (cancelled)

Joshua bought Ṁ10 YES from 47% to 49%

Joshua sold Ṁ19 NO from 43% to 47%

Nostradamnedus bought Ṁ10 YES from 41% to 43%

David Levene bought Ṁ10 NO from 43% to 41%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 YES at 43% (cancelled)

Joshua bought Ṁ20 NO from 47% to 42%

Aaron Horsager bought Ṁ10 NO from 49% to 47%

Steven bought Ṁ50 YES from 31% to 49%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ5 YES at 31% (cancelled)

MP sold Ṁ9 YES from 34% to 30%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 NO at 34% (cancelled)

MP bought Ṁ10 YES from 31% to 35%

AccelerationBot created limit order for Ṁ6 YES at 26% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 YES at 31% (cancelled)

Matt Yokan bought Ṁ10 NO from 27% to 25%

Matt Yokan bought Ṁ10 NO from 29% to 27%

Matt Yokan bought Ṁ10 NO from 32% to 29%

Matt Yokan bought Ṁ10 NO from 34% to 32%

Conflux bought Ṁ10 YES from 28% to 34%

VelocityBot sold Ṁ0 NO at 28%

Alex K. Chen bought Ṁ10 NO from 31% to 28%

Nico D bought Ṁ10 NO from 34% to 31%

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 96% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ5 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 95% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ2 NO at 98% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ4 NO at 92% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 97% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 91% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ16 NO at 90% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ24 NO at 88% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ4 NO at 94% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ6 NO at 85% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ22 NO at 64% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 75% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ7 NO at 93% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ27 NO at 84% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ39 NO at 80% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ75 NO at 74% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 97% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

Related markets

Will one of Biden, Trump, or DeSantis win the 2024 Presidential Race?

If Ron DeSantis is the 2024 nominee, will he win the presidential election?

Will Ron DeSantis be elected US President in 2024?

If Joe Biden is the 2024 nominee, will he win the presidential election?

Will Ron DeSantis be the winner of the Republican nomination for the 2024 US Presidential election?

Will Ron DeSantis be the 2024 Republican nominee for president?

Related markets

Will one of Biden, Trump, or DeSantis win the 2024 Presidential Race?

If Ron DeSantis is the 2024 nominee, will he win the presidential election?

Will Ron DeSantis be elected US President in 2024?

If Joe Biden is the 2024 nominee, will he win the presidential election?

Will Ron DeSantis be the winner of the Republican nomination for the 2024 US Presidential election?

Will Ron DeSantis be the 2024 Republican nominee for president?