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MANIFOLD
Will the House seat count fall outside of 538's 80% confidence interval on Oct 28
13
Ṁ300Ṁ838
resolved Nov 15
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if seat count is not in the range below:

Market context
US Politics
Politics
US 2022 Elections
Meta-Forecasting
US 2022 Midterms
Derivative Markets
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predictedYES

This market is resolving because of the following trigger(s): If this market reaches its close date (-> YES)

It will follow the decision tree below:

  • If the human operator agrees:

    • Resolved (or current, if not resolved) value of N/A (Will the House seat count fall outside of 538's 80% confidence interval on Oct 28) (-> 0%)

Final Value: NO

predictedYES

Will resolve when either R picks up 2 more seats, or all seats are picked up

Related:

predictedNO

Related:

I want to do this for governors as well, but they don't give a numerical answer and I would have to guess from pixel measurements. That seems like a pain

I'm not persuaded that their crew has solved the polling problem well enough to be sure. I think they'll probably be right, but I wouldn't give their 80% confidence my 80% confidence, I guess.

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