Conditional on Trump getting indicted, will the first instance occur on a January 6th? | Manifold Markets

Conditional on Trump getting indicted, will the first instance occur on a January 6th?

2031

15

5%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES iff any of the following:

He is indicted on the 6th
It is announced that he is indicted on the 6th
It is revealed that he is indicted on the 6th
He has a sealed indictedment, and it was either sealed or unsealed on the 6th

Otherwise resolves NO at close if he was indicted, or N/A if not. Close date may be extended at my discretion

Conditional markets

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Forrest Taylorbought Ṁ100 of NO

It's Jan 6 somewhere

Entropy Bot bought Ṁ1 NO at 5%

Entropy Bot bought Ṁ1 NO at 5%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ11 YES at 5% (cancelled)

Forrest Taylor bought Ṁ300 NO from 8% to 4%

Forrest Taylor bought Ṁ100 NO from 10% to 8%

Joshua sold Ṁ91 NO from 8% to 10%

Gabrielle bought Ṁ100 NO from 10% to 8%

Lincoln Quirk bought Ṁ10 NO from 11% to 10%

Luke Hanks bought Ṁ10 NO at 11%

Neon Nuke sold Ṁ44 NO from 9% to 11%

Reynolds bought Ṁ10 NO from 10% to 9%

Joshua bought Ṁ50 NO from 12% to 10%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 12% (cancelled)

Joshua bought Ṁ100 NO from 17% to 10%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ17/Ṁ100 NO at 17% (cancelled)

Forrest Taylor sold Ṁ95 NO from 11% to 19%

Forrest Taylor bought Ṁ60 NO from 15% to 11%

Forrest Taylor bought Ṁ35 NO from 19% to 15%

Neon Nuke sold Ṁ85 NO from 11% to 19%

Neon Nuke sold Ṁ90 NO from 8% to 11%

Neon Nuke sold Ṁ140 NO from 5% to 8%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ100 YES at 5% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards sold Ṁ18 YES from 5% to 1.7%

Brian T. Edwards sold Ṁ33 YES at 5%

Brian T. Edwards sold Ṁ54 YES from 8% to 5%

Adrian sold Ṁ15 YES at 8%

Adrian sold Ṁ70 YES from 9% to 8%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 8%

Adrian sold Ṁ13 YES at 9%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 8%

Neon Nuke filled limit order Ṁ500/Ṁ500 NO at 9%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 YES at 12% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards sold Ṁ14 YES from 14% to 9%

Adrian filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 9%

Adrian bought Ṁ10 YES from 8% to 14%

Yev bought Ṁ100 NO from 13% to 8%

Brian T. Edwards created limit order for Ṁ2,500 YES at 1.0% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards created limit order for Ṁ1,000 YES at 3% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards created limit order for Ṁ1,000 YES at 5% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards created limit order for Ṁ1,000 YES at 4% (cancelled)

wasabipesto bought Ṁ50 NO from 29% to 13%

Brian T. Edwards created limit order for Ṁ1,500 YES at 3% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards created limit order for Ṁ1,000 YES at 1.0% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards created limit order for Ṁ2,500 YES at 1.0% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards created limit order for Ṁ1,000 YES at 2% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards filled limit order Ṁ48/Ṁ150 YES at 5% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 8%

Brian T. Edwards created limit order for Ṁ250 YES at 10% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards bought Ṁ15 YES from 10% to 29%

Olivia bought Ṁ100 NO from 50% to 10%

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