Bounty: Is this a reasonable way to assess my risk re: sperm cryogenesis?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ3resolved Jul 17
Resolved as
51%1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In part I want to make sure that this is available to other people who might need it, but more truthfully I just want someone to check my math and sign off on things
The only part of this desmos graph that might seem strange is the integral, but that is just a hack to implement argmax() so I can find the number of attempts that maximizes my reward function divided by cost.
I made it flexibly so that parameters can be shifted, but there may be some times where the graph times out and you need to refresh. Additionally, I want to note that I am plotting it for 3 kids even though I plan on having 2 as an additional way to be risk averse.
I pulled the CPOS compensation stats (probability medicine gets you to ovulate, odds of early miscarriage) from academic papers I found via search. Costs are known. Equation for "odds of at least c kids" was pulled from MathOverflow
https://www.desmos.com/calculator/h4ojciwzhz
Reported issues will receive tips proportionate to the severity of the problem and helpfulness in fixing it. I will resolve to MKT
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by: