This question will only resolve in yes or no if he starts the Giro. If van Aert doesn't cross the startline of stage 1 of the Giro d'Italia, this question will be resolved N/A. If you want to bet if he starts, there will be the Giro Starlist market from @eliza linked down below.
He has to finish within the best 5 General Classement riders at the end of the race.
If the Giro was cancelled early, this question would be resolved accordingly to given UCI points for GC.
1,000
3.00@Lion Looks 50/50 to me -- he could start but not on top form, or stay home.
The Giro is known to pay riders to start races and it seems within the realm of possibility that Wout has a starting fee arrangement with the Giro, which could factor into the decision.
@Eliza Not sure if they pay so like WVA. I think all their money has gone to Pogi this year. It just makes sense for him to not start the Tour this year regarding Olympics and WC.
@Lion "I wasn't going for GC, I just accidentally found myself in 1st place on Stage 15 and decided to give it a shot."
@MaximilianHindermann Hi Maximilian and welcome to Manifold. If you are interested in road cycling, there are a lot of questions which you can most easily find by clicking on the tag "Peloton Discord". If you have any questions, feel free to ask.
@Lion He's not gonna start!!!! The rumors are all fake! This is invented. Not real.
Would be fun though.
@Eliza Tbh it wouldn't surprise me. This would be the perfect offseasen fantasy story. I mean I even brought it up two weeks ago with no proof ;)
@Lion Since this is a conditional question, I think it would be appropriate to change the title to something like:
If Wout Van Aert starts the 2024 Giro d'Italia, will he finish top 5 in GC?
Normally we do put the condition in the title on conditional markets.