My hypothesis: It should yield about the same number of impressions, but with a comment from a trusted user and not rewarded with Mana, it doesn't appear spammy and looks like something other users really would read and not just click on a button to claim the Mana. Pretty much compared to companies who advertise influencers directly and not on the platform.
Background: I boosted this market with M$1250 with pretty humbling results. Only 16 people so far have bet on it, which isn't enough to yield good results.
In my eyes, coming into this experiment, it is worthwhile to boost easy and popular markets like my "richest person in the world" market , but to draw attention to less popular and difficult markets, it is the wrong tool.
That's why I'm trying other methods and putting up this bounty, which awards M$1250 to users who share my market.
My judgement:
Of course, if there is much more engagement (>40 new traders) on this question, I will resolve this question "Yes".
If there is about a similar number of new or fewer traders (<20 new traders), I'll resolve it "No". For me, it wouldn't be worthwhile to create and manage a bounty if the results are about the same.
If the bounty isn't fully claimed and the question gets less than 20 traders, I'll resolve it "No".
If the bounty isn't fully claimed (<50%) and the question gets more than 20 traders, I'll resolve it "Yes".
In between, it depends on how everything plays out, how much I have to advertise the bounty on Discord, etc. I might resolve this question with a percentage, but I won't N/A it.
I won't bet in this market and will resolve this market with an explanation of my results. The market runs at most a month.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ80 | |
| 2 | Ṁ12 | |
| 3 | Ṁ0 |
@traders Since initiating the bounty, M$840 (67.2%) have been claimed and 17 new traders have joined the market. Accrding to the description I'll resolve this question as NO. I invested substantial time and effort in promoting this bounty, even providing a loan with unfavorable conditions to someone with a significant number of followers, so they would claim it. After discussing it with a few individuals, there seems to be a general sentiment that it appears suspicious or too influenced, and people are not receptive to it. It might be more popular with higer payments towards users, but at that pointsetting up boosts or advertisements seem like the better choice. The approach I took definitely didn't yield positive results, and I've decided not to pursue it again.
@derikk It would incentivize some people and would disincentivize other people. It doesn't matter to have more engagement on my question if this means that I can't use the result because it's too inaccurate for me.
I know binary markets are always more popular. But I don't want to create popular markets, I want people to answer my questions.