Will be resolved accordingly to https://www.letour.fr/en/stage-21 on July 21tst.
The TdF-Dashboard: https://manifold.markets/news/tour-de-france-2024-1wmakfef
New market for those who are unhappy with the mountains classification:
It looks like there is a categorized climb on the final stage, where Pogacar is basically a lock for 1st place (5 points), and Carapaz will get zero. So that would bring their gap down to just 9 points.
I believe Pogacar does not care about this classification even one little bit, and Carapaz is probably capable of getting 5 points on the intro Cat 2 tomorrow, even if he's pretty cooked. If Quick-Step and/or Visma try to keep the stage together tomorrow, Pogacar can easily take 10 more points at the finish line, and it might not be quite as easy a stage for Carapaz to get a top 5 finish.
Overall I think Pogacar has like a 10% chance even if he doesn't specifically try for it, and if he truly wants this jersey, it would be like 75%.
@Lion I put a bit on Other, because tomorrow's stage has 20+40+10 points available. If it ends up being for a breakaway, someone who is not Pogacar could put up a pretty convincing lead if they top all three in first.