Who will win the polka dot jersey (mountain classification) at the 2024 Tour de France?
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Plus
18
Ṁ17k
resolved Jul 21
100%99.0%
Richard Carapaz
0.3%
Tadej Pogacar
0.1%
Jonas Vingegaard
0.1%
Simon Geschke
0.1%
Remco Evenepoel
0.1%
Primoz Roglic
0.1%
Jai Hindley
0.1%
Giulio Ciccone
0.1%
Romain Bardet
0.1%
Julian Alaphilippe
0.1%Other

Will be resolved accordingly to https://www.letour.fr/en/stage-21 on July 21tst.

The TdF-Dashboard: https://manifold.markets/news/tour-de-france-2024-1wmakfef

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Congratulations to Carapaz! Great Tour with the Yellow Jersey, winning a stage, and the Polka Dot Jersey.🥳

New market for those who are unhappy with the mountains classification:

/Eliza/will-an-aso-or-rcs-stage-race-use-t

LOL, I amn't unhappy, just uniformed and had to hide it soemhow 🙃

Lol bike drama

You forgot to place your bets.

bought Ṁ50 Richard Carapaz YES

because it's an outrage what they've done here

Eliza should have given us a live stream of the EF team's strategy bus speech 😠. That's outrageous that he didn't. This probably was the least drama tour ever. 😅

bought Ṁ10 Tadej Pogacar YES

If anyone would like to explain this classification to me, I'm all ears 🙃 Since when does the mountain top finish climb not give double KOM points?

that's the anti-Pogi rule, they did it because otherwise it was always whoever won the tour would win the KOM too

So we give away 40 points for some random midway climb no one ever heard of, but for Isola2k with a finish just 10 points? If I was Pogi, I'd sue them...

but it gives for more spectacle, otherwise Carapaz wouldn't be on the breakaway tomorrow, and it gives some extra drama to watch mid-stage. Everybody knows that the best climber is whoever wins the tour

It looks like there is a categorized climb on the final stage, where Pogacar is basically a lock for 1st place (5 points), and Carapaz will get zero. So that would bring their gap down to just 9 points.

I believe Pogacar does not care about this classification even one little bit, and Carapaz is probably capable of getting 5 points on the intro Cat 2 tomorrow, even if he's pretty cooked. If Quick-Step and/or Visma try to keep the stage together tomorrow, Pogacar can easily take 10 more points at the finish line, and it might not be quite as easy a stage for Carapaz to get a top 5 finish.

Overall I think Pogacar has like a 10% chance even if he doesn't specifically try for it, and if he truly wants this jersey, it would be like 75%.

bought Ṁ3,136 Richard Carapaz YES

It's poever...

Other
bought Ṁ100 Other YES

@Lion I put a bit on Other, because tomorrow's stage has 20+40+10 points available. If it ends up being for a breakaway, someone who is not Pogacar could put up a pretty convincing lead if they top all three in first.

Lazkano was fishing for points today, but as always Movistar tries to go for everything and gets nothing. He should have dropped earlier to try to be tomorrow on the breakaway again, or not spend as much and go for the stage earlier. He had the legs but needs a better team

bought Ṁ75 Richard Carapaz YES

@Eliza Good call

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