Please note: All definitions and rules outlined by the market creator (@Lion) apply solely to the Mana version of this question. I can only address questions related to the Mana version. For questions about the Sweepstakes market, please contact Manifold Markets directly.
The Mana version will be resolved according to the following rules. If you have any questions or if any resolution criteria or edge cases are unclear, please ask before trading. Otherwise, the Mana version will be resolved based on my judgement. Note that the Mana version may resolve differently from the Sweepstakes version.
Donald J. Trump must be directly named as the Person of the Year for this market to resolve as YES. For example, if TIME Magazine’s 2024 Person of the Year is named as "Donald J. Trump," "Donald J. Trump and J.D. Vance," "Donald J. Trump and The Grand Old Party," or "Donald J. Trump and Elon Musk," this market will resolve as YES. However, if the Person of the Year is identified as a group or entity that does not directly name Trump, such as "All Americans" or "The Grand Old Party," this market will resolve as NO.
This question specifically pertains to Donald John Trump, born on June 14, 1946, the 45th President of the United States and winner of the 2024 US election. If another person, such as Donald Trump Jr., is named without the explicit inclusion of Donald J. Trump, the market will resolve as NO. (“Donald Trump and Donald Trump Jr.” would still resolve as YES)
The close date for this market will be adjusted to the evening before TIME Magazine announces the Person of the Year (POTY). Liquidity might be reduced earlier.
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3.00@traders I've upgraded this market to Crystal 🔮 Enjoy the subsidy 🥳
Liquidity will be removed on December 1st (random time/random timezone)
They gave it to TSwift last year with this note from the Editor
"Every year contains light and dark; 2023 was a year with significant shares of darkness," Jacobs wrote. "In a divided world, where too many institutions are failing, Taylor Swift found a way to transcend borders and be a source of light."
Trump received the award in 2016, Harris/Biden in 2020, just given the controversy this election cycle I think they'll shy away from giving it to him and find something non controversial and feel-good, magazine-selling narrative to promote
@SimranRahman Oh, I think giving it to Trump would definitely sell magazines. He inspires strong opinions on both sides.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 my point is primarily based on brand / reputation management for TIME but it's certainly still probable
@traders I've upgraded this market to Crystal 🔮 Enjoy the subsidy 🥳
Liquidity will be removed on December 1st (random time/random timezone)
@OliBeatson This isn't a poll, but, I disagree. He's the first candidate in a century to win a nonconsecutive term, and he won it with the popular vote.
Remember, TIME is trying to sell magazine covers, and a lot of people will buy Trump: POTY covers. This is how I predicted that Taylor Swift would win last year.
Musk... probably not. His fans are already spending money lots of places that aren't on physical magazines, and the newly elected President usually wins POTY. Last time it didn't happen was 1996, before my birth.
@OliBeatson Trump got shot, charged with 1000 crimes and went on to do better in the election than did the two previous times he ran. The story is incredible and def more deserving than Biden was in 2020 (should've been the racial protests). No one really dominated pop culture like Swift did last year, and musk is clearly in the coattails of Trump.