I'll measure the time from the first touch of their hands to the moment they release. If they shake hands multiple times, only the duration of the first handshake will count. Whether they touch each other's shoulders or their bodies do something else doesn't matter.
If the timing is difficult for me to judge precisely and falls between two options, I will resolve 50% chance to each option. [I will not bet on this market.]
This market will be considered N/A if the debate doedn't take place in June or if they do not shake hands during CNN's official live coverage. I will follow @Joshua 's market and definition of a handshake, and will resolve this question as N/A if @Joshua's market resolves to NO.
This market is intended to be about the scheduled CNN debate on June 27th, but would also include if that debate were rescheduled or cancelled or cancelled and replaced with another debate, so long as it happens in June 2024.
This market will be scheduled to close just before the debate, and will resolve the day after.
Related questions
@MartinRandall Why is this no longer possible? I couldn't find any updates in the community guidelines (I looked here and here), and I thought N/A would be discouraged whenever Manifold finally does real money payouts, which isn't before the debate (at least as far as I'm aware).
ping @mods
It's already discouraged. Nobody knows the exact rules - manifold is still figuring that out.
The right way to make this market is having an option for no handshake.
I'd suggest closing this market and opening a new one. We can still resolve the old market N/A if need be.
@jack What is the point of closing this market and opening a new one except to try to follow rules that don't exist?
I won't create this market type in the future/create them in the right way, but closing this market now would be against actual written rules (the market description, see below) and would have negative consequences for traders, as their Mana would be locked up and wouldn't allow to change their minds. Additionally, this market might need an N/A anyway. As long as real money withdrawals aren't possible, what would be the benefit of closing it now? I think this market has a sufficiently short duration to make recreating it unnecessary.
This market will be scheduled to close just before the debate, and will resolve the day after.
btw: Does this (non-)rule also apply to all the Biden/Trump wins markets? (I've created a few of them in the past myself) Some of them are prominently marketed on the US politics dashboard without any warning or indication that those markets shouldn't be created anymore and are open to trade on as well.
Benefit of closing now is reducing the scope of any problems. The bigger the volume on a market, the bigger the potential problems of an N/A. But it's not a big deal - as you said there are tons of other markets in a similar situation - you can just leave it.
None of the mods can give you a definitive answer because we keep asking Manifold for guidance and they haven't given it. The best I can do is recommend creating new markets without N/A as an option, and say that probably existing markets are ok as is.