Will Trump and Biden shake hands at the first debate in June?
Jun 27

This market resolves YES if there is footage of Trump and Biden shaking hands at their first debate in June.

This market is intended to be about the scheduled CNN debate on June 27th, but would also include if that debate were rescheduled or cancelled or cancelled and replaced with another debate, so long as it happens in June 2024.

If they do not shake hands on the day of their debate, or if there is no debate in June, this market resolves NO. This market will be scheduled to close just before the debate, and will resolve the day after.

From Wikipedia:

A handshake is a globally widespread, brief greeting or parting tradition in which two people grasp one of each other's hands, and in most cases, it is accompanied by a brief up-and-down movement of the grasped hands.

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They shouldn't even pretend. They should pose with their fists at each others' face, like they do before MMA matches.

@aashiq They shouldn't even pretend that they're debating. They should just have an MMA match. /s

Now, let's work on getting this straightened out: "brief up-and-down movement of the grasped hands." Is 1-2 pumps enough for it to be determined a handshake? If Trump just grabs Biden's hand for 1 pump and Biden pulls it away and says "Oww man!" was that considered a handshake or an attempted handshake?

@Predictor I would say if their palms touch in the handshake position for even 1/100th of a second it should be enough

@nsokolsky I don't know. What if one offers a handshake and the other slaps it away? /s

bought Ṁ50 YES

The moderators might force it. Might not be a natural handshake at the beginning or end. Might be something like, "can you show the American people that you are human and can play fairly by putting animosity aside and shaking hands that you will gracefully accept defeat in November?" I'm banking on that.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Predictor A debate is a sportsman like contest, so I think the context for shaking hands here is different. Per Wikipedia “it is also done as a sign of good sportsmanship. Its purpose is to convey trust, respect, balance, and equality”.

The stated reason Joe Biden ran twice was because he believed Trump was disqualified from serving as President (for many reasons). You can demonstrate civility in the debate with words, but shaking hands as a sign of respect for one’s opponent seems beyond the pale for both opponents and very disingenuous for either candidate to do so given their rhetoric about each other.

They didn't shake hands in 2020 due to COVID, 75% sure they'll do it in June.

@nsokolsky than bet it to 75%

@SirCryptomind blowing 100% of your portfolio on 1 trade is a bad idea

@SirCryptomind Comments like this should be automatically interpreted by Manifold as a limit order at 75%

@Ansel lol


Metaculus has a forecast on this!

bought Ṁ500 NO

@Joshua Wow a handshake at any debate counts and it's still at only 25%.

Some relevant facts:

Until 2016, all presidential debates included handshakes. The final 2016 debate did not feature a handshake. https://time.com/4538640/handshake-presidential-debates/

2020 debates did not feature handshakes due to COVID: https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/27/politics/biden-trump-no-handshake-first-presidential-debate/index.html

Semiotic Rivalryfilled aṀ1,999 NO at 51% order


I love this Wikipedia article.

Supreme Court Justice nominee Neil Gorsuch, at his April 7, 2017, nomination ceremony: Gorsuch was reportedly "almost jerked... off his feet" by Trump,[5] who "yank[ed] the judge towards him as if he were a pet dog on a leash".

But it also has reason to bet no!

Commentators have claimed that Trump has germophobic views relating to handshaking;[9] Trump has at times deemed handshaking to be "barbaric, disgusting and 'very, very terrible'".

Trump's win-lose, zero-sum handshakes offer a visual presentation of isolationism that produces a jarring effect; they are a shock to long-established and near-universally shared norms of diplomatic conduct as well as policies that ostensibly maintain a liberal, multilateral world order made up of plural but largely cooperative governance mechanisms. The rest of the world can refuse to play Trump's game here, or play the game by enduring the handshakes while otherwise sustaining multilateral order themselves and making deals without Trump as was case in 2017 when Trump's administration opted out of climate change and trade deals.

Someone should make a market about who will win the handshake.

Trump will extend his hand offering the shake, then pull away at the last second and say “sike!”

He cannot be trusted.

@ConnorDolan I think he'll say rationalussy

bought Ṁ50 NO

Decent amount of disagreement here! Let's up the stakes.

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@Joshua Thx

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