I will resolve the number based on people* who have credibly reported to test positive for COVID either during the days of Manifest or up to 10 days later. We will include both replies to this question and any private information sent to either me or the organizers, or come to our attention (as long as I believe that the reports are probably real and not duplicates).
If the event is cancelled completely, the question is voided. If the event is cancelled part way through (eg due to COVID), the question is not voided.
*people defined as anybody who sets foot in the Rose Garden Inn between Friday afternoon and Sunday evening. Unless the event is cancelled halfway through, in which case it doesn't count people who set foot after the event is cancelled.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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@lopera I'm hoping people will report unless they're asymptomatic but I agree that you should price in data issues in your forecast (this is a common problem in covid forecasting).
Datapoint: during the ACX conference at Rose Garden Inn in July 2022 only 3 people tested positive for COVID during or after the event (AFAIK). And that's with daily self-testing by all onsite attendees.
@NikitaSokolsky Hospitalization rates were almost nil during July, while now they are significantly higher.
@SteveSokolowski hospitalization rates were higher in July 2022, which was a local peak, at least in the US: https://ibb.co/bgrJ9ph
@mqp really? I'd expect most people to want to know if they have covid vs common cold, for planning, medication, purposes etc.
I realize now that I had 4-10 and 10-20 as well as 10-20 and 20-50 in the question.
If the answer is "10", both 4-10 and 10-20 resolve positively (if technically impossible, I will flip a coin).
If the answer is "20", both 10-20 and 20-50 resolve positively (if technically impossible, I will flip a coin).