If I attend Manifest, would I have considered it a better use of my time than my counterfactual weekend?
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resolved Oct 12
Resolved
YES

For "good use of time," I think I want to weight impact and fun roughly evenly.

My counterfactual weekend involves mostly relaxation, with a bit of work. Typical activities in the former category include Starcraft, walks, getting dinner or tea with friends, and arguing with people online. Typical activities in the latter category include scoring grants and writing articles.

I will score according to ex post results, not ex ante (eg if I talk to a potentially donor but they don't donate, or met a cute person at an afterparty but nothing came out of it, I'd count that as ~neutral).


If I get covid, this answer will most likely resolve negatively.

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Tbh I'm still confused about this question.

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Throwing down a limit order at 80% Yes 😉