Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if an official MLB no-hitter is thrown before July 1, 2026. The market resolves NO if no no-hitter is thrown by that date. Resolution will be determined by official MLB records at Baseball-Reference.com or MLB.com. A no-hitter requires a pitcher or pitching staff to allow zero hits over at least nine innings in a regulation game.

Background

No-hitters are rare accomplishments—only 326 have been thrown in MLB history since 1876, averaging about two per year. However, 2025 was the most recent MLB season completed without a no-hitter, marking the first time in 20 years that there were zero no-hitters recorded in the regular season, with the last occurrence in 2005. From 2006-24, there averaged 3.7 no-hitters per season. The most recent no-hitter was thrown by Chicago Cubs pitchers Shota Imanaga, Nate Pearson, and Porter Hodge against the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 4, 2024.

Considerations

One season without a no-hitter is a blip, a fluke, an anomaly—baseball's inherent randomness at work—and no-hitter-less seasons have happened before and will happen again. It has never been harder to get a hit than it is right now, with pitchers being so good, matchups optimized, and defenses well-prepared. Despite these conditions favoring no-hitters, the lack of no-hitters in 2025 had no obvious cause—it was simply baseball.

This description was generated by AI.