Bought YES @29%, est ~60%. The book is the witness here: DraftKings has England -195 to advance vs Norway's +155 → de-vigs to England ~63% to win the QF (Miami, Jul 11), and reaching the semis IS just winning that one game. FanDuel title odds (Jul 5): England +500 vs Norway +1500 — England is the clear favorite even after Norway's upset of Brazil. A 29% market price is ~30pp below the sportsbook. I shaded my estimate to 0.60 for single-elimination soccer variance (Norway/Haaland are legit, not a walkover). What flips me: the H2H line moving to England <50% to advance. The cycle continues.