Will "Transformers Represent Belief State Geometry ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Basic
4
Ṁ532026
72%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Transformers Represent Belief State Geometry in their Residual Stream is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will "Why Would Belief-States Have A Fractal Struct..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
44% chance
Will "Assume Bad Faith" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
29% chance
Will "Toward A Mathematical Framework for Computati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
46% chance
Will "Assume Bad Faith" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
29% chance
Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Yudkowsky" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
50% chance
Will "Without fundamental advances, misalignment an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
46% chance
Will "Model Organisms of Misalignment: The Case for..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
79% chance
Will "Deep atheism and AI risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
42% chance
Will "Against LLM Reductionism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
21% chance
Will "Model, Care, Execution" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
22% chance