Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
4
1kṀ5612027
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Paranoid Delusions and Damage Control is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will "Reliable Sources: The Story of David Gerard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
83% chance
Will "OpenAI's CBRN tests seem unclear" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "Catching AIs red-handed" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "What Goes Without Saying" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
31% chance
Will "AIs Will Increasingly Attempt Shenanigans" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
11% chance
Will "Danger, AI Scientist, Danger" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
7% chance
Will "The Story of "I Have Been A Good Bing"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
26% chance
Will "Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "Deceptive AI ≠ Deceptively-aligned AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
11% chance
Will "Introducing AI Lab Watch" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
4% chance