Will "Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
0
1k2027
14%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will "2023 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "AI 2027 is a Bet Against Amdahl's Law" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "A breakdown of AI capability levels focused o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Near-mode thinking on AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Yudkowsky" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
50% chance
Will "Four visions of Transformative AI success" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Introducing AI Lab Watch" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
9% chance
Will "things that confuse me about the current AI m..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Christiano" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
28% chance
Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Christiano" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
28% chance