Will "Hyperbolic model fits METR capabilities estim..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
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As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Hyperbolic model fits METR capabilities estimate worse than exponential model is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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