Will "How bad a future do ML researchers expect?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
3
1kṀ525resolved Feb 11
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post How bad a future do ML researchers expect? is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ60 | |
| 2 | Ṁ0 |
Related questions
Related questions
Will "2023 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "The first future and the best future" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "The Median Researcher Problem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "You should go to ML conferences" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
9% chance
Will "You don't know how bad most things are nor pr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
18% chance
Will "Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "The nihilism of NeurIPS" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "2023 Survey Results" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
2% chance
Will "Shallow review of technical AI safety, 2024" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "Four visions of Transformative AI success" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance