Will "General Thoughts on Secular Solstice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Basic
3
Ṁ1302026
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post General Thoughts on Secular Solstice is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will "Constellations are Younger than Continents" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
37% chance
Will "Things I Learned by Spending Five Thousand Ho..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
72% chance
Will "Social Dark Matter" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
59% chance
Will "Things I Learned by Spending Five Thousand Ho..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
70% chance
Will "Acausal normalcy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
35% chance
Will "Critical review of Christiano's disagreements..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
27% chance
Will "Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
34% chance
Will "The Dial of Progress" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
19% chance
Will "On green" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
81% chance
Will "ASIs will not leave just a little sunlight fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
16% chance