Will "Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
1
Ṁ1kṀ502028
13%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will "How I've run major projects" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "Prioritizing Work" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
8% chance
Will "Are We In A Coding Overhang?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Measuring no CoT math time horizon (single fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Do confident short timelines make sense?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
20% chance
Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
45% chance
Will "METR: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
19% chance
Will "You’re probably overestimating how well you u..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Posts I don't have time to write" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
11% chance