Will Cori Bush win re-election to the House in 2024
Nov 6

Cori Bush is running for re-election to the US House of Representatives in 2024. Will she win the election? If she loses, chooses not to run, or chooses to run for a different office, this question will resolve NO. If she loses in a primary, dies, or is incapacitated and not re-elected, this question will resolve NO.

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This is a safe D, seat, so it's really about whether Bush wins the Primary. Wesley Bell appears to be her main challenger. Bush won her 2022 primary easily, though it's possible comments on Israel/Gaza have cost her popularity.

predicts NO

@TimDuffy Totally agree. Will be interesting to watch the re-election campaigns for each of the Squad members

predicts YES

@TimDuffy question is do people in St. Louis & Minneapolis (Ilhan Omar's district) care deeply about Israel? I'm going to venture that they - like most others - care more about domestic issues. Also, in deep blue districts, even if they did care about the war as one of their motivating issues at the ballot box, there's a good chance MANY of them would be supportive of the Palestinian cause. I'm bullish on both this YES and the YES in the Ilhan Omar market for re-election.

predicts NO

@JonReid I think you make many good points. Where I differ is that I think the amount of money and attention from outside the district is what will tip the scales. Many donors will fund campaigns to unseat Omar, Bush, and others. That makes me bearish on them getting re-elected.

@LeeBressler Interesting counterpoints. Certainly worth considering. We've seen that work before with establishment money for sure (Nina Turner in OH), but we've also seen the insurgent leftist overcome it (Summer Lee in PA). Should be a fun primary watch for us political nerds (I'm not even American haha.)