Will Axie Infinity's $SLP token be worth less than $0.01 USD (1 cent) by February 1, 2022?
8
100Ṁ1791resolved Feb 1
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
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ALL
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by January 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, Axie Infinity's Smooth Love Potion ($SLP) token trades for less than $0.01 USD. For the avoidance of doubt, the price in USD must be less than $0.01 USD at the time of closing, not temporarily dipping below that price before then and then recovering.
For adjudicating the price in USD, we will accept agreement of two out of three of the following sites: Coin Market Cap, Coinbase, Coingecko, specifically these three URL's:
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/smooth-love-potion/
https://www.coinbase.com/price/smooth-love-potion
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/smooth-love-potion
Which is to say, if any two of these sites agree that the price is below $0.01 USD at the time of closing, the market resolves to "Yes."
Dec 29, 1:10pm: "not temporarily dipping below that price before then and then recovering." --> "not *simply* temporarily dipping below that price". It's okay if it dips below and recovers so long as it also goes on to be below the price at closing. The point is that it has to be below the given price AT the time of closing.
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Feb 1, 12:58am: CLOSING NOTES
This was ridiculously close.
In the final hours, the price surged to just over $0.01 by *thousandths of a cent* and then plunged RIGHT at midnight. The three sites slightly disagree as to when.
CoinMarketCap says unambiguously that it was < $0.01 at closing time:
https://i.imgur.com/vXMw9SQ.png
CoinGecko says unambiguously that it was > $0.01 at closing time, by *twelve ten-thousandths of a cent*:
https://i.imgur.com/6lbzyy6.png
(five minutes later CoinGecko reported it as < $0.01)
This brings us to CoinBase to break the tie.
It gives us a price of EXACTLY $0.0100 an hour and a half before closing:
https://i.imgur.com/emofmFS.png
But going to the hourly view we get $0.0099 half an hour AFTER closing:
https://i.imgur.com/y0iUZ6q.png
So how do we resolve this? There's two ways to fairly interpret CoinBase:
- Take the closest of the two data points to midnight
- Average the two data points
Either method would result in a value < $0.01
Given this evidence, I think I am being fair and honest and sticking to the letter of my own criteria by resolving this as YES.
I'm kind of astounded by the sheer closeness of this photo finish.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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